Emerging Markets: Everywhere I look the term is being thrown around by giddy investors, but no one seems to have a clear definition of the term. In the September 20th issue, The Economist wondered if it was time to retire the phrase “emerging markets.” But they didn’t know what to replace it with. In Part 1 here I want to explain why I think that “Emerging Markets” in almost all shades has been a poor choice and is beyond saving. Then in Part 2 I would like to propose a shift to the term “Emergent Economies”.

As of this posting the Wikipedia stub states, “The term emerging markets is used to describe a nation’s social, or business activity in the process of rapid industrialization.” Following this, there are are at least three definitions in the first few paragraphs that are all equally problematic

EMERGING MARKETS are…

1. Moving from developing to developed markets.

(((First of all, this is a tautological definition. Unless someone can tell me what a developing country is other than “A market that has yet to emerge.” And, does this meta-narrative make any sense given the ecological crises the planet currently faces? What is “developed” about the United States’ abuse of natural resources and inability to move towards a ecologically sustainable economy and should any other country attempt to ‘develop’ towards this state?)))

2.Where politics matters as much as economics to the markets.

(((While this may have been a more stable definition a month ago, it would seem that the United States, given its current political wrangling over a major state intervention and the accompanying market volatility should probably be considered an Emerging Market)))

3. Economies that are undergoing rapid growth.

(((As the Economist points out, if a recession comes along, perhaps Emerging Markets should start to be called Submerging Markets)))

It seems to me that there are certainly observable characteristics shared across the clustering of countries usually considered “Emerging Economies” and I would disagree that “The term emerging markets is used to describe a nation’s social, or business activity in the process of rapid industrialization.” For one, this assumes that rapid industrialization is a desirable model of growth, and that rapid industrialization is the dominant force or trend that one observes on the ground.

However, in the Emerging Economy Report we came up with a radically different definition:

An EMERGING ECONOMY is a region that is experiencing rapid Informationalization, under conditions of limited or partial industrialization. In other words, these are primarily agricultural economies which are nevertheless experiencing explosions of media and communications.

In the past, some of these regions have been understood as being in the process of industrial development, and were therefore described as ‘developing countries.’ Alternatively, they have been described as ‘emerging markets’ for goods and services created in industrialized nations of the world.

Our conception of Emerging Economies, however, recognizes that these parts of the world are not merely slow to industrialize, and nor are they mere markets, but they are strategic centers for the emerging networked knowledge economy.

One of the pleasures of consulting for the Indian company CKS over the last couple of years has been watching a company from an emerging economy define the term emerging economy. Much of the writing I have seen from academia and business press makes the mistake of defining these countries in relation to the assumption that they exist to dump products on, or that they will follow the narratives of industrial development that many Western countries followed.

Instead, CKS takes the point of view of below and within and has discovered some very interesting discrepancies with the term “Emerging Market” as it is usually conceived.

In Part 2 I explain what I mean by Emergent Economies.

Under the Semantic Web We’re All Logos Now

On the other hand, shouldn’t economic conservatives be rolling in their graves? (((Update: They did. Along with a few anti-antimarket(corporate) lefties (see Dennis Kucinich), the house rejected the gussied up, lipstick on a pig bill. And now that the senate approved a new pork rind package it will be up to the House again.)))

When did America become such a blatantly (corporate) socialist state - even in the name of Wall Street execs? I thought the right wing financial industrial complex had to at least pretend it was interested in fiscal responsibility and letting the market do its work. Shouldn’t the ideology of radically free markets carry us through this storm?

I am wondering if Karen Elliot has anything to do with this calamity.

The artist sold a piece called “Neoism Now!” in our 2006 ebayaday project which said:

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oppressive nation state model WORKING RIGHT FROM YOUR OWN HOME.

You will receive a action kit that will help you get started non- violently undermining
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And I just found a review of the piece on a Moscow based art blog (translation here). that called it “horrible mysterious piece”:

All VERY interesting if you ask me.

As a sad serious side note: What’s not interesting is hearing commentators claim that this corporate welfare is justified because these companies failing would be a disaster. Where was this line of thinking when families houses were being taken away? I can’t think of a bigger disaster for a family than losing house and a home. Where is the call for showing some responsibility and letting the CEOs and companies suffer. If the American economy fails and China prevails as the leader of the 21st century its just a ‘market adjustment’ right?

I was presenting some of my work to my research lab today - and I made a new collage of my plugfinder project. After the presentation Gabe said it was the first time he understood what plugfinder was about and why I worked on it. That was encouraging because it was also the first time I understood what plugfinder was about: open source urbanism / urban computing / ambient commons requires electricity. The quotes in this image might say it all:

Who will power the people’s ambient information environments?

&

Information wants to be free, but not if it requires electricity

One idea we have been exploring is the possibility of creating a form of currency that allows people to trade the maintenance of the environment for information that they want.

One model of how this might we will call EcoBux: A user of EcoBux contributes to the maintenance of an ecosystem service by sequestering carbon or treating organic waste on site (rather than going on trucks to a landfill) and verifies their activity through the EcoBux website. The user can manage and keep track of how much natural capital they have accumulated using their account on the site. This natural capital has a currency equivalent that can be spent in lieu of money on at virtual places such as the iTunes store, access to videogames or other subscription services. Media companies will be happy to accept EcoBux for two reasons:

1. As the price of information approaches zero the attention economy becomes more important to users than the financial cost of information. Sophisticated users will use torrents and other grey markets to access the media they want rather than pay for it if is relatively quick. Above ground producers need users to visit their site ensures eyeballs are coming, increasing advertising revenues and ensuring lock-in effect as users become acculturated and dependent on that media environment, with the expectation that they are willing to pay in the future.

2. Under carbon credit systems or other emerging environmental regimes that allows individuals and institutions to benefit from maintaining or improving ecosystem services, the companies would stand to gain from the credits / offsets created by the users of EcoBux.

Some of the challenges in implementing this kind of system include:

1. Verifying and measuring the work that users do. However, this may be more of an opportunity to produce and sell product service systems which measure and verify the maintenance or creation of natural capital.

2. Getting enough desirable information suppliers involved to attract and retain users.
There are many challenges to creating a market of this kind that scales, but there are many reasons why it may be the perfect time to get it off the ground:

It is universally recognized that the negative externality of environmental degradation threatens both the survival of our planet, our species and our economy. The problem of global climate change is well articulated, but solutions have been slow in coming and even slower in being implemented. Less universally understood is the problem of sustainable knowledge production.

The transition to an information economy is still up for grabs. The barriers to production of electronic of media have dropped close to zero. Music companies have struggled to find revenue models that preserve the profits they enjoyed in the days fixed media. These companies challenge of leveraging media content in an information saturated age where no one expects to pay very much. It is in this strange time where art and especially journalism have become negative externalities that everything is up for grabs. Independent musicians and journalists need to get compensated for their work, but in order to compete with the old guard have largely been giving their work away for free. Surely, in the long run we will see the development of markets that would be totally unrecognizable to the 20th century mind, but during this transition can media companies leverage their nearly worthless media holdings in exchange for environmental stewardship. Can we trade in some carbon for some silicone?

I am teaching a lab this semester called EnviroCasting. The word is a contraction of Environmental Broadcasting, but has other meanings as well.

As a lab we are working in the mode of client based art research. Our lab is playing with the intellectual property of the Daily Dump product -service-system.

In addition to the 4 groups, we are collecting our discussions and thoughts in the form of a wikibook at: envirocasting.zackdenfeld.com

Feel free to get an account and co-author if you are interested.

“THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO RUB UP AGAINST A FAMILIAR STRANGER’S DATA BODY”

Soundswap is any stationary bluetooth enabled device that allows passerby’s to swap audio files when they are standing near it. Only people who pass by the device during the day will be able to access it. This project attempts to promote local information exchanges that allow urban dwellers to exit their normal social networks and bump into the data bodies of the familiar strangers that pass by where they live and commute. This project awards the repeated use of daily inhabitants, who gain a window into the diversity of their community while retaining a relative degree of anonymity.

Mechanism: A User blue tooths one audio file that is less than 50MB to the device. Once the device confirms the receipt of a playable file, it sends the user’s device the first of three audio files stored in the que.

It’s 8:55 and three songs are saved in the cue of the SoundSwap box. This box is a small mobile phone with blue tooth, and running Java. Ten of these have been installed by an arts group with funding from the city of Dublin. Commercials and posters announce the project, and the artists have spent a couple of weeks tweaking the system and training commuters on how to use it.

At 8:57 Melanie walks by. Melanie is an independent media activist and wants to share her left-leaning news broadcast with someone. She adds the note “News from the Front.” In return she receives a live DJ set by DJ Mooley. She hasn’t heard his stuff, but she has seen ads for his Thursday night dance party. If DJ Mooley’s mix is any good, maybe she will ask Caroline to go with her this week.

Two minutes later Ng Wan Wu walks past. Last night her son emailed her an old recording of a Chinese Opera she listened to in her youth. She hasn’t heard the song in over 30 years. She is not sure if anyone else will like the song, but she is so happy to have rediscovered it that she decides to share it. In return she receives “I Wanna Be Your Dog” by The Stooges. She listens to the track and at first she thinks about turning it off because it sounds too loud, like the heavy metal her son always plays. But then she thinks that to most people in Ireland, Chinese Opera probably sounds like a cat being tortured so she gives the song a listen all the way through and finds it kind of relaxing.

Sayalee walks by at 9:08 and wants to share this song she has been looking for all week. A song from a jeans advertisement on TV has been stuck in her head all week. She finally tracked down the band online and wants to share it with everyone else. She gets “London Calling” by The Clash. It’s a band she has always meant to listen to, but never has. The note says “off to England for a Wedding.” She wonders if its that cute boy she sometimes sees on this walkway. Hopefully HE’S not getting married.

Guy comes by at 9:25. He is late for his job at a website company which produces media for budget travelers on how to save money. But he figures he will have an excuse for his boss if he tells him that he was distributing their new audio interview with British Airways on how to get free airline tickets using the SoundSwap system. In return he receives this morning’s IndyMedia broadcast. The broadcast reminds him of something he hasn’t thought of since he was a teenager – following his dreams. Maybe he should just quit this boring but well payed job and become a trekking guide like he has always wanted.

*************************************
Some Q&A about SoundSwap

Q: People can already change a variety of files between their handheld devices without the intermediary of the SoundSwap device. What’s the point.
A: While its certainly true that people may trade files with others, it is usually with people already in their social network, and does not necessarily expose them to information that comes outside of that somewhat closed network. This box is an opportunity to be surprised and to access information one would not usually. It is important that the box physically exists in a space. It provides a well or water fountain around which people can congregate. Finally, the patterns of use that develop locally are what may distinguish it significantly from other forms of information swapping.

Q: Where do you think these could / should be installed?
A: Anywhere that people congregate and have a minute or two to make a swap. Elevators, subways, buses, walking paths, parks, coffee shops, alleyways, art museums, libraries, etc.

Q: What if people swap COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL?
A: There is a very good chance that users will initially use SoundSwap to trade the audio which is on their handhelds which is primarily copyrighted popular music. After all, large medi conglomerates spend millions of dollars making sure that is the sound track that pervades our lives.

However, the limitations of space and time make this a much less threatening network than online file trading. In fact, it is more like attending a mix tape party, where everyone brings some music and swaps with one other person. Once someone makes the a swap, the file is deleted from the device. The focus on localism makes it much more likely that people will want to use this device to share music they’ve made, unusual or interesting audio files they have run into on the net, or something they will get people’s attention.

Also, as a SoundSwap community becomes vibrant and used, it is likely that anomalous audio is what will interest people to keep participating. Social capital within the network will be generated by providing interesting audio that one would otherwise not run into in their usual information drive. It is unlikely that a familiar stranger will gain much social capital by sharing a top 40 song which is already available on radio, TV, in movies, in advertising and everywhere else.

Q: Can I set up a SoundSwap Juke Box in my (neighborhood, coffee shop, park etc.)?
A: Sure. Any Bluetooth enabled device that can run a program will do. You can use our code (as soon as it is actually written or just write your own. Remember that old PC tower that just sits in your basement? Why not buy a USB Bluetooth device and donate it to your favorite coffee shop. One advantage of a newer device is that it can go into sleep mode and only be woken up when it is contacted. One of the dangers of read/write urbanism is how much more electricity it may use.

Q: Realistically, how could a large scale deployment of SoundSwap Jukeboxes be financed in one city?
A: There are probably a few methods. The costs involved are the hardware, the electricity, and the maintenance.

-Art project or ‘cultural stimulus’ model: This is where you write a grant or get a governmental or arts funding organization to help finance the installation of these. Building this kind of infrastructure can make downtown areas more attractive and populated, and its much cheaper than light rail or other forms of infrastructure intended to create vibrant downtowns. Also, after the project runs its course the hardware can be reused for many other things.

-Advertising revenue: This is where you partner with an advertising organization who may pay for it if every 10th audio file is a jingle or something.

-Host parasite model 1: This is where you donate the hardware to a space like a coffee shop, boutique store, and they pay for the electricity because it attracts and retains customers. If they have a display window you can even put the device in the window so it is accessible 24 hours.

-Host parasite model 2: You can find an enlightened business owner who is already running something like flatscreen advertising billboards, which basically play a video file from a PC, and ask if you can partner with his organization to install your software and a Bluetooth device.

-Commons model: This is where you petition a government body and make the case that people have a right to engage in free information exchanges. SoundSwap might not be the perfect model, but certainly people need a space other than interactive billboards to exchange information in the 21st century.

Mitch wondered whether there was an application for Scratch and the physical computing blocks the Pico Crickets. The CEMA lab has used Scratch and Crickets in the past as a way to quickly mock up projects, but never as tools themselves for the completion of work. Usually after an early prototype in Scratch and Crickets we have students move over to Processing and Arduino.

But, one of the benefits of using these two systems is that they are both intentionally designed with limited palettes. The constraints of both these tools have the potential to drive creativity precisely because their vocabulary is smaller.

Lets see what we can do with them in the next few months at the lab.

Here is a quick remix I made:

(photos by AnnA Perricci)